StableCoin Analysis
We see Total StableCoin (including on-chain and on the exchange) is still decreasing from the end of March 2022 until now. Shows => Positive signal has not come yet
Yesterday, August 17, a large amount of StableCoin was pushed on the floor but mainly flowing into Derivatives, not Spot => Not yet creating a large buying force
So this large amount of StableCoin flowing into Derivatives is long or short? Seems to be long => The market is trending down
About Exchange Whale Ratio
We can see from the nearest bottom (17k8), we are seeing the amount of Whales that are still putting BTC on the floor
About Derivatives
We see that the Estimated Leverage Ratio is at a high level, the OP is also rising, it can be seen that this will be a slight correction from 25k4
Who is putting selling pressure on the market?
We see, Hash Rate is still decreasing from May until now => Small miners are probably turning off their excavators, only big miners are left
From the nearest bottom (17k8) we see that the number of BTC reserves of miners is increasing => The big hands in miners also do not want to sell the recent BTC price.
However, in the last 1-2 weeks, Miner’s reserve has dropped, proving that Miner wants to take profit from his mining job when the price goes above 23k
From this picture, it can be seen that the selling pressure from Miner is showing signs of decreasing gradually from 6, when the price started to recover from July, Miner was easier to breathe due to pressure from machinery costs, debt, etc.
So surely the miner is the one who sold the last batch to get profit for his mining. So what about retail investors and wallet addresses over 100k coins?
According to the picture below, we can see that Sharks with 10k coins or more are not sold or collected during this time. Fish from 1k to 10k are being sold lightly.
Get side information
Long-term Holder is losing, STH’s profit is not significant, Taker Sell Ratio <0.5 we can see that there is higher buying pressure right now.
Conclusion
In my opinion, the economic situation is still bad so I don’t update the trend quickly, but now no matter what, no one is selling
There will be no new bottom, ie no less than 17k8
This crash is mainly due to taking profits from miners for this August